baby boomers and the economy

Are Baby Boomers Being Hustled by the U.S. Government and Wall Street?

  • Our recent economic experience could be driven by a con game, a hustle.
  • The TV series “Hustle” follows a template that can explain money printing in the US  over the past.
  • I identify the characters in a hustle: The Mark, the Grifters, and the Shills. 
  • Why focus on Baby Boomers? They have trillions of dollars of assets. They have the most to lose because they are about to retire or are recently retired with decades of life ahead of them. 

Hustle the con is onLast night we watched a news report about $1.9 trillion in additional COVID relief and how wonderful that is. Then we watched another episode of a TV series that we love called Hustle that portrays a likable team of con artists who trick their “Marks” into parting with money or valuables. Each episode shows a different clever con that tricks an unlikeable person, many times without being recognized as the thief. Then it struck me that all this money we’re printing, like $1.9 trillion in COVID relief, might be a hustle. Let me explain.

 

Mechanics of a hustle

Although every episode of Hustle is a different con, there is an established pattern, or template, throughout:

  • They always play what’s called a “long con” which means it takes a long time to come together, like months, but they frequently finance the venture with some “short cons” that raise a little money quickly.
  • There are always three main characters: (1)  a “Mark” (the target) who is usually not a nice person, (2) the “Grifters” (the likeable team of con artists) and (3) “Shills” (accomplices who help along the way, sometimes unwittingly).    
  • The stages of the con also have a progression as follows:
  1. Foundation: Research the Mark to identify interests and vulnerabilities. 
  2. Approach: Set the objective and pick the con. In the TV series they usually identify the con by name, suggesting that there’s some sort of con manual. The Mark is approached or contacted.
  3. Build-up: The victim is given an opportunity to profit from participating in a scheme. The victim’s greed is encouraged, such that their rational judgment of the situation might be impaired.
  4. Pay-off or convincer: The victim receives a small payout as a demonstration of the scheme’s purported effectiveness.
  5. The “hurrah”: A sudden manufactured crisis or change of events forces the victim to act or decide immediately. This is the point at which the con succeeds or fails. 
  6. The in-and-in: A co-conspirator puts an amount of money into the same scheme as the victim, to add an appearance of legitimacy, and the Mark buys in. The con is completed.

 

Have we been hustled?

Our recent economic history fits this template in the following ways:

  • Our current economic journey began in 2008 with the financial crisis, so this long con has lasted 13 years so far, and it will likely take another 4 or 5 years to complete. The “long” in this long con is about 18 years.
  • The “Mark” in this con is the United States, specifically members of Congress. The “Grifter” is China that is caught in the Thucydides’ Trap and seeks to be number one. And the “Shills” are U.S citizens.    
  • The stages of the con progress as follows:
  1. Foundation: Congressional members are greedy and mostly focused on getting re-elected.  Voters want free stuff like healthcare and education
  2. Approach: Create a “theory” that liberates spending from a budget. Money printing is justified by “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) – print all you need.
  3. Build-up: Following Japan’s lead, the US launches Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2008 to head off a recession, printing about $4 trillion.
  4. Pay-off or convincer: QE works!! The recession ends quickly, the stock market enjoys its longest recovery ever and inflation is subdued. 
  5. The “hurrah”: A sudden manufactured crisis or change of events forces the victim to act or decide immediately. The COVID pandemic breaks out, originating in China.
  6. The in-and-in: Congress approves another $5 trillion in COVID relief plus President Biden plans to spend at least another $2 trillion on infrastructure and other projects. So, $11 trillion in new money (counting QE), which may be enough to bring hyperinflation.

The American Rescue Plan

The scenario so far has set an inflationary spiral in motion that could bankrupt the US and bring China into world dominance. Stay tuned.  This will take many years to play out, and a lot can happen in the meantime. MMT encourages money printing until it causes inflation, at which time taxes are supposed to be increased to take that money out of the economy. Will Congress act?

 

Conclusion

I’ve offered a sort of mind exercise that I suspect will amuse some while angering others. I’m looking forward to the discussion. Baby boomers could suffer the most from a reduction in their purchasing power. Thanks.

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